Lesson 7 of 81925–20168 min
Hypothesis testing and p-values
In 1925 Ronald Fisher's book Statistical Methods for Research Workers suggested that a result with a probability below 1 in 20 under the null hypothesis was worth taking seriously. He meant it as a convenient guide. Within decades, p < 0.05 had become a gate for publication in many fields.
In 2016 the American Statistical Association published a formal statement on p-values, the first time it had taken an official position on a specific matter of statistical practice. Its message was that p-values are useful and widely misunderstood, and that no single threshold should decide what is true.
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Sources
- The ASA Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose (R. L. Wasserstein and N. A. Lazar, The American Statistician, 2016) — American Statistical Association
- On the Problem of the Most Efficient Tests of Statistical Hypotheses (J. Neyman and E. S. Pearson, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 1933) — The Royal Society
- OpenIntro Statistics (free textbook), chapters on inference — OpenIntro